Bolivian Referendum Results Analysis
By Andrew LyubarskyAugust 12, 2008 | Posted in IndyBlog | Email this article
For the Movimiento a Socialismo and Evo Morales, Sunday was indubitably a good day. After having won the Bolivian presidency in 2005 with approximately 54% of the popular vote, Evo surprised everyone by not only winning the recall referendum convoked by the right-wing opposition, but by winning big, with over 62% of the vote. Commentators that had lamented Evo’s loss of support by his “frightening of the middle class” and “loss of the urban vote” were left surprised that Evo was able to not only consolidate his support in rural Bolivia to near unanimity, but make substantial inroads in urban centers such as Cochabamba, in which vocal anti-Morales sentiment is frequently heard. He even captured about 40% of the vote in
It is extremely likely that, as he announced in his victory speech, Evo will use this as a mandate to push more aggressively for his project of social transformation – a new, indigenous-centered constitution, nationalization of formerly-privatized industries, and a pursuit of land reform in
Government Support in Autonomist Regions Surprisingly High
Looking at the bright side, Evo’s roughly 40% approval in the autonomist states suggests that the opposition to his government voiced by regional leaders and the press does not represent significant sectors of society in the so-called “Media Luna” of opposition. Despite the radical opposition voiced to his government in his two years in power, this percentage actually represents an increase over the level of support he got there in 2005. However, his 60% disapproval there, along with the easy margins of victory for the opposition governors, suggests that the application of any kind of assertive policy that affects elite interests will be bitterly contested. While the right-wing is likely to wince at the magnitude of Evo’s victory and some of its ideologists may have held millenarian ideas of recalling him and restoring the order that had been broken by the “
After the discrediting of neoliberal economic policy and the growing assertiveness of indigenous movements in the 1990s, the Bolivian right wing and traditional political structure realized that it had to prepare to lose hegemonic control over the national government. They were a predominantly white minority in a society still rife with colonial elements and an ideology of racial distinction, and a minority whose ideas of development and Bolivian society had long failed to resonate with the predominantly indigenous population. Thus, instead of waging the losing battle of contesting national control, they undertook, quite successfully, a project of regional consolidation in
The results of the referendum confirm this struggle for them, and they will continue unabated in their confrontational discourse. It is likely that despite winning a level of support unheard of for a Bolivian president in the democratic era, Evo will still be unable to visit 5 out of the country’s 9 states unless he is willing to use force to subdue violent right-wing youth groups, actions which could spark a wider conflagration. The tone of his latest speech was conciliatory to the victorious opposition prefects and called for dialogue, but as it becomes increasingly clear that they will agree only to a dialogue that preserves their rights to rule the East as their private fiefdoms, the government may have to become more aggressive.
The most proximate struggle will be over the blowout loss of Manfred Reyes Villa in
In January 2007, MAS tried to force Manfred to resign, angered after he attempted to call a second autonomy referendum after the question had already once been defeated in the state. They occupied the central square, and Manfred-sponsored goons from the upper-middle class areas of the cities descended on them, eager to “beat up some Indians”. Two MAS backers from rural areas and one upper-middle class teenager were killed in the conflict, the state building was briefly set on fire, and Manfred came off as the defender of democracy against an unruly mob.
This time, the democracy card is on the side of MAS. The question of the day is whether the right-wing opposition will circle its wagons to defend its ally in
Dialogue or Confrontation?
The rhetoric of the mainstream political commentators in
The Bolivian daily La Razon described the situation thusly. “If we were tied 1-1 [before the vote], now we have returned to a tie, but a 3-3 tie. What use will these actors get from their victories?” This is an analysis that doesn’t take into account the very real boost that Evo and his supporters will take out of these elections, but it does capture the idea that both the left and the right wing have won, at different scalar levels of the Bolivian state. After a great deal of theater and the dispatching of some minor characters, we are left with both the heroes and villains standing emboldened as the dust settles.
8 Responses to “Bolivian Referendum Results Analysis”
August 12th, 2008 at 11:52 pm
Excellent article. Particularly of the reasons why dialogue will probably not yeild fruit.
And as of now Evo is up to 67% on the official national court count.
August 13th, 2008 at 2:08 am
What will happen is that Cochabamba’s prefect Manfred Reyes Villa will resist and Morales will use him as a warm for the greater opposition. Reyes Villa is the weakest link within the opposition and does not enjoy much support. Furthermore, he lost the damn referendum. So the central government can claim a legal mandate against the prefect and oust him.
I think Morales should be much more cautious with the Santa Cruz department. MAS should take stock of the situation - MAS/Evo is gaining support in the department and if they take a long view, they could conceivably take power in the future. The knock on the long view is that there millions of “indios” tired of being second class citizens (much like African-Americans in the first part of the 20th Century) and are ready for social change. MAS could doubly miscalculate the militancy of its base and loose them if they don’t fight for change.
Watch for Morales to organize a militant base in Santa Cruz and split the opposition by taking down Reyes Villa. He begin to make some big steps before the end of the year.
August 14th, 2008 at 12:49 am
More updates….
Evo’s vote continues to grow to an even stronger landslide
Manfred Reyes Villa has “not renounced” but “stepped away” from the Cochabamba prefecture, leaving his chief of staff in charge.
The opposition prefects have arrived in La Paz to sit down for a “dialogue”, even as they have avoided doing so for months.
So far, so good…
August 14th, 2008 at 12:51 am
he has also now won the majority in Chuquisaca, where Sucre is located
and the MAS prefect of Oruro was not recalled after all the rural vote came in
September 29th, 2008 at 7:06 am
Not a bad article…usually the east is made to appear as Nazi Germany by many in the media. I am from Santa Cruz. It makes me sad that we are fighting each other, instead of uniting. Both battles have to be faught. Natives need better lives but the departments also need freedom from the central chains. Government and opposition just instigate conflict. Not to be biased but its specially the president. Cant blame it…hes got a whole lot of hate in him. Masses of paid indians are constantly fencing Santa Cruz. We dont even have police on our sides!!!! F*ck centralism! Political leaders need to apply spiritual concepts to their goals. God bless Sta Cruz, God bless Bolivia. Peace.
January 25th, 2009 at 11:53 pm
Interesting article.
I agree with Guetti. I’m also from Santa Cruz and as far as I can remember, there was always division between the East and the West (Collas Vs. Cambas), this division dates centuries!!
This is really sad, since the country has so much to offer and if there would be some kind of unity, there would be miracles!!!
I love Bolivia, particularly I love Santa Cruz, my home land, however, not everything that the media displays is true.
I just called some friends in Santa Cruz and was told that many cruceños’ names did not appear in the voting list. Even though they voted in previous elections and have all their documents as proofs! WHY? Was this a government scam?
One particular friend told me that his name did not appear in the list and he could not cast his vote. Then another person told me the same story.
IS THIS LEGITIMATE?
Centralism will never win, at least not in Santa Cruz.
It is very true that Bolivian political leaders need some sort of spiritual concepts to govern. The corruption needs to be uprooted!
God bless Santa Cruz and peace to all my fellow Bolivians!
January 27th, 2009 at 10:49 am
kenyans experienced an era of violence for 2 to 3 months but one of its son is the most powerful man in the world soon after violence.we pray 4 peace in bolivia.evo should be very careful not to cause war.

































August 12th, 2008 at 5:57 pm
Score one for Evo. This is a major victory for the socialists, but they have their work cut out for them.